A big population boom during the 1970s was interrupted in 1982 and 1983 in Benton and Linn counties as recession took its toll. Lincoln County, with an economy less bothered by the recession, was not affected until 1985 and 1986, when small population losses were reported.

What caused the population drop? To a large extent, the population changed to reflect the local job market.

 

 

 

 

 

With the nation in recession, the lack of a market for locally-produced building products caused the economies of Benton and Linn, and most of the rest of the Northwest, to suffer more than the nation. Local workers went elsewhere looking for jobs.

Not until 1987 would this area again see population growth because of people coming back to a growing job market.

Most of the increase in population has been because of in-migration. Graph 2 illustrates that, while natural increase is quite steady and predictable, the real driver to population growth and decline is migration.

Barring yet another localized recession like the one of the early 1980s, population growth in Region 4 is expected to continue.

 

 

 

 

Projections from the Department of Administrative Services, Office of Economic Analysis suggest that Region 4’s population will climb to over a quarter million by the year 2010 (Table 2).

 

Growth of the Older Population

During the 1990s, for the first time in our history, there were more Oregonians over 70 than teenagers. Oregon’s proportion of older people has been increasing since before the turn of the last century. In 1900, less than four percent of the state’s population was aged 65 and over. By the 1990 Census, 14 percent of the Oregon population was aged 65 and over.

According to the U.S. Census figures, Oregon’s median age in 1997 was 36.6 years. That ties with Connecticut for a number six ranking nationally, behind West Virginia at 38.1, Florida at 38.0, and Pennsylvania at 37.3, and Maine and Montana both at 36.9 years.

Rapidly-expanding numbers of older people, around the world, represent a social phenomenon without historical precedent. And Region 4 is sharing in this

growth. Numbers from the 1980 and 1990 Census show that the age 65+ group has grown more than eight times as fast as the total population.

Gains in the older population, due to natural increase, will accelerate through the next 20 years as the "baby boomers" of the 1950s and ‘60s make their way into the higher end of the demographic charts.

 

The mid-Willamette Valley’s and the coast’s mild climate, affordable housing, , good medical care, and relative freedom from crime, are among the factors that appeal to older residents.

Race and Ethnic Origin

Region 4’s racial/ethnic mix has become increasingly diverse over the last decade. The evidence comes from the decennial census for 1980 and 1990.

Graph 3 shows the percentage population gains by race/ethnic status. It is clear that slowest of the non-white classifications (Black) grew by more than 20 percent over the ten years while the white group grew less than one-tenth as fast.

It is also just as clear that those of the population identifying with the "White" group far outnumber all others combined. Graph 4 illustrates the relative population of the major racial/ethnic classifications. It is easy to note the height of the "White" column compared with the others. In 1990 the White population numbered 188,146 and all others shown added to 12,691

To see how Region 4 compares with Oregon in racial diversity, we can look at Graph 5. Here we see that Region 4’s total population makes up 7.1 percent of the people living in Oregon.

Whites and Asians each make up 7.3 percent of the statewide White and Asian populations. Region 4’s Native Americans make up 6.8 percent of the state’s population in this racial group.

Only four percent of Oregon’s Hispanic population resides in Benton, Lincoln, or Linn counties. This small number is surprising, given that this group historically has been initially attracted to an area with a large number of agricultural jobs. But times are changing fast, as many people of Hispanic heritage are increasingly well represented throughout the labor force. In addition, Hispanics servicing the agricultural needs of Region 4 can be found residing in neighboring Marion or Polk counties to the north.

With more than nine out of ten of Oregon’s Black population residing in the Portland, Salem, and Eugene metropolitan areas, it is no surprise that there are not very many around the rest of the state. Still, Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties were the home to 856 Blacks, more than one-fourth of Oregon Blacks not living in metropolitan areas.

Table 4, on a following page, shows that population increases between the last two censuses are not small. While Region 4’s total population rose 4.1 percent between census counts, the count of the non-White residents grew more than ten times as fast, an increase of 45.1 percent.

Region 4’s largest gain in racial/ethnic minorities was in Benton County. If the presence of a large university encourages a diversity of culture, Benton County is a prime example. Benton’s minority population grew faster than the state’s between 1980 and 1990, and almost twice as fast as in neighboring Lincoln and Linn counties.

Migration from Japan and China accounted for some of the increase in the Asian/Pacific Islander group. But the largest single factor was the wave of immigrants from southeast Asia following years of conflict throughout that region. Migration from Southeast Asia continued in earnest through the early 1980s.

Amnesty provided some "illegal aliens", more properly called "undocumented workers", an opportunity to officially move their residence from Mexico, and points south, to the United States. The need for agricultural workers in the Pacific Northwest was a primary attraction for many. As thousands of working people and families gained legal status, many looked past the seasonal farm jobs and have found their way into nearly every part of the region’s economy.

At 31.5 percent, the increase in the number of Native Americans is hefty, but still a smaller gain than for Asians or Hispanics. Such a large increase is difficult to explain in that Native Americans are not migrating from other countries as are the other minority groups.

The possible explanation for the 1990 census count of Native Americans may lie in the fact that the census is one of self-identification. That is, the person filling out the questionnaire gets to individually decide with which racial/ethnic groups they wish to be identified. It is not unusual for people to identify themselves differently from census to census.

One example of people changing their ethnic identity comes from nearby Polk and Yamhill counties. If further significant increases in Polk and Yamhill’s Native American population occur with the year 2000 Census, one cause could be the Spirit Mountain Casino, operated by the Grande Ronde Indian tribe in western Polk County. According to an article in the July 26 issue of Salem’s Statesman Journal newspaper, "Drawn to the tribe’s new-found prosperity and the chance to identify more with their Native American heritage, new members have flocked to the Grand Ronde. This year, the tribe added 434 members. The number has risen steadily each year since 1995, when 118 people joined the tribe.

 

1. The most familiar of the reasons for unemployment applies to job losers, whose employment ended involuntarily and who began looking for another job.
2. Job leavers are persons who quit or otherwise ended their employment voluntarily and began looking for work.
3. Re-entrants are persons entering the labor market who previously worked at a full-time job lasting two weeks or longer, but who have been absent from the labor force for a period of time.
4. New entrants are persons entering the labor market who have never worked at a full-time job lasting two weeks or longer.

What should seem like another category in the reasons for unemployment would be in-migration -- those individuals who moved to the region. But even these workers are represented in the above four categories. (For example, many would be job losers or job leavers from the area they left.) Regardless of the reason for moving to the Benton/Lincoln/Linn area, many new residents are added to the unemployment rolls as they look for work.

In recent history, lumber products, primary metals, and electronic manufacturing layoffs have created job losers in Region 4. Stories about job losers are what we watch on the television news and read about in the newspaper. And for good reason. The plight of the job loser is considered to be more serious than that of persons who have voluntarily quit their jobs or who have recently entered or re-entered the labor market. The job loser’s household normally suffers a sharp curtailment of income as well as possible loss of health insurance and accumulated pension rights. This group accounts for nearly one of every two or three unemployed workers.

The number of job leavers fluctuates with the economy. During the fast-paced months of 1979, one out of five unemployed had left voluntarily. Just three years later, near the bottom of the recession in 1982, only one out of twelve of the unemployed were job leavers. Workers may leave jobs as the

 

 

family moves, to find other employment, or for other reasons unique to the individual.

The second-largest category, commonly making up about one-third of the unemployed, is re-entrants. Perhaps the most visible re-entrants to the labor

force are women who had previously left the labor force to start or raise a family and who are now returning to the job market. Another common reason in timber-based communities is the loss of a job by a family’s primary wage earner, which may result in the re-entry of other family members into the job market in search of income to supplement a drastically-reduced income.

For the most part, new entrants into the labor force are concentrated among teenagers and those in the 20-21 year age range who may have just left school. New entrants typically account for about five to ten percent of the unemployed.

The locally strong economy in recent years will have lured some re-entrants and new entrants into the labor force, people who otherwise would have been too discouraged to spend resources on a serious job search. Until a person starts a job search, they are not counted among the unemployed -- regardless of how badly that person wants to work. Long ago, the U.S. Department of Labor decided to classify people by their actions rather than their desires.

Why Are They Unemployed?

There are probably as many personal reasons for unemployment as there are people unemployed. For a farming, wood products, and tourism area such as the Willamette Valley and Oregon Coast, seasonal unemployment, which results from normal season patterns, affects thousands of workers.

In Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties, there are over 25,000 persons employed in industries with significant seasonality. These highly-seasonal industries include agriculture, food processing, construction, wood products, education, and the difficult-to-count "tourist industry". Other industries experience lesser seasonal patterns, but still contribute to seasonal unemployment. Seasonal unemployment follows a generally predictable yearly pattern.

Another type of unemployment is frictional unemployment. Frictional unemployment is generally of a short duration and involves workers either just entering the labor force or moving between jobs. It includes people who quit jobs for better ones or to move to another part of the country.

Individuals tend to have more control over frictional unemployment than any other type of unemployment. During adverse economic times, frictional

unemployment tends to decline. When there are few jobs available, workers think more carefully about quitting their job to look for another.

Cyclical unemployment results from downturns in business activity and is brought about by reduced demand for goods and services. Cyclical unemployment can affect a broad range of occupations and industries and is often of a longer-term nature. In the past, rising cyclical unemployment during recessions has imposed pressure on the government to provide some form of stimulus to business activity in order to provide jobs for the unemployed.

Cyclical unemployment is associated with recessions. The two major cyclical downturns of recent years in Oregon occurred in 1975-76 and 1981-83. In both of these cases, annual average unemployment rates jumped into double-digits and stayed there until the cycle reversed.

Structural unemployment is caused by a mismatch between the types of jobs available and the skills of the workers. This is generally the most serious type of unemployment. Barriers to matching the jobs to the workers may come from such sources as a changing economic base (for example, shifts from wood products manufacturing to electronics) or through technological change (for example, electronic technology introduced into the assembly line).

Structural unemployment is a problem that does not go away as does cyclical unemployment after a recession. The people affected by structural unemployment are not just out of jobs; they are also out of careers. Most victims have but three options: moving away, starting a new career, or dropping out of the labor force.

Local Levels of Joblessness

Throughout the 1980s and ‘90s, unemployment rates for Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties showed remarkably similar trends -- but at different levels.

Benton County’s average annual unemployment rate was consistently below Oregon’s rate, as much as five percentage points lower in 1982.

Only in 1990, with Benton’s large high tech sector in short-term slowdown coupled with a large loss in wood products jobs, did Benton and the state nearly touch points on Graph 5. Though all these years, Benton had either the lowest or second-lowest jobless rate in the state.

Even in 1990, only Gilliam County, with a 3.3 percent unemployment rate, could beat out Benton’s 5 percent. Going back to 1980, Benton County and Gilliam County have held the low unemployment rate honors, Benton eleven times and Gilliam six. Third place has often gone to the Portland PMSA (which includes Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties in Oregon and Clark County in Washington).

Why is Benton County’s rate so low? There are three reasons: Oregon State University (OSU), Hewlett-Packard (HP), and a lack of housing. OSU directly accounts for 8,500 nearly recession-proof jobs, almost one out of four jobs in the county. HP, with newspapers reporting 5,500 jobs, has been a continuing source of hundreds of new jobs nearly every year since the late 1970s. A serious shortage of housing in Benton County has driven up housing costs so that many unemployed persons find it wise to live somewhere else.

Lincoln County’s annual unemployment rates have followed remarkably close to those of the state as a whole in most years since the early 1980s. This indicates that changes in unemployment rates have been related to the statewide business cycle and the seasonal nature of employment in the county, rather than to any extraordinary influence caused by structural problems such as those witnessed in the wood products industry.

But because Lincoln County has such a high percentage of employment in seasonal tourism industries such as hotel and restaurant jobs, monthly jobless rates in Lincoln County vary considerably over the course of the year, and reach rates that are much higher than the state’s rate during the coldest months between December and April. For example, while Lincoln County and the statewide unemployment rates were comparable in August of 1998 at 6.1 percent and 5.7 percent respectively, the previous February showed a large gap when Lincoln County was 10.3 percent and the statewide rate was 6.5 percent.

In addition to the seasonal changes in employment, Lincoln County does have some amount of structural unemployment, caused by a downturn in the wood products and fishing industries. Since 1996, lumber and wood products employment has dropped by 32 percent to reach 170 in the first half of 1999. Additionally, a combination of poor fishing conditions and new regulations have caused a slow down in fishing and fish processing. Undoubtedly, some of these workers will face a difficult time transitioning to other employment.

Linn County claims the most noticeable changing trend in unemployment. During most of the 1980s and into the mid-1990s, Linn workers experienced a much greater incidence of unemployment than those in either of the other Region 4 counties or the state as a whole. Certainly, a loss of nearly one out of every six jobs in its important lumber and wood products industry in less than four years could not happen without consequences. The unemployment rate rose from a respectable 6.1 percent in October of 1978 to double-digits with a high of 18.4 percent in January 1983. On top of lumber products job cutbacks, the loss of 300 jobs in primary metals in the early 1990s added to the county’s woes.

What is now happening is that Linn County’s economy is living up to more of its potential. Helping Linn County through the difficult times were two very large advantages: its industrial diversification and its location. With strong basic export industries including wood products, primary metals, paper products, machinery, food processing, and a community college, Linn County has one of the most-diversified industry bases of any nonmetropolitan county in the state. Physically located between and within easy commuting distance of two metropolitan areas, Salem and Eugene-Springfield, and easy access to Corvallis, Linn residents are second only to Portland-area residents for the number of jobs in easy reach.

1999 and Beyond

Not only economic conditions, but also demographic and social changes, are affecting the makeup and availability of the future workforce. Changing gender roles, age of population, and educational levels will all contribute to the characteristics of the employed, as well as the unemployed, in years to come.

It is expected that females will continue increasing their participation in the labor market. Women will be more likely to finish college than in the past, and will make even greater inroads into previously male-dominated jobs.

Lower birth rates during 1990s is reflected in Table 5’s population in Region 4’s 0-9 age groups. This means that fewer people may be entering the job market starting at around 2010 or 2015.

Contrarily, there is some concern that as today’s adolescents and young teenagers become ready to enter the job market, they will be likely to find increased competition from their peers (translated: greater chances for a time of unemployment), since there are more of them.

But, as we see in Table 5, at the same time there are increasing number of young people, there is similar growth in the coming number of retirement-age people, who are now age 55 through 59. As increasing numbers of older workers take their golden watch, more jobs will be available to the growing numbers of young people.

 

 

 

Three Different Economies

Although sharing common borders and many geographic features, Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties are very different in their industrial structure, occupational mix, and measures of economic well-being.

Benton County’s economic base is primarily higher education and high-tech manufacturing, Lincoln is largely tourism oriented, and Linn County has a large diversity of manufacturing.

Benton’s economic base is yielding a stable source of jobs for area residents. Although its list of employers lacks the diversity normally desired, its two largest employers, Oregon State University (OSU) and Hewlett-Packard, have provided the growth and payroll levels coveted by economic planners across the nation.

Oregon State University is a model of a consistent source of jobs. Not only does OSU directly provide more than 8,000 jobs during the school year, but the food, shelter, and other needs of its students, faculty, other staff and their families ensure a market for a vast array of locally-produced goods and services.

The presence of OSU is credited as the main reason for the location of Hewlett-Packard and other "high tech" companies in the immediate area, which together provide over 6,000 jobs. And these jobs pay well. Benton’s electronic equipment manufacturers (SIC 36) reported an average payroll of $55,840 in 1998, far exceeding the area’s lumber & wood manufacturing average of $31,281.

Benton has fewer jobs than other Willamette Valley counties in seasonal industries such as food processing and in the hard-hit lumber and wood products. Benton’s food processing is mostly made up of dairy products, soft drinks, and snack-type foods. The lumber industry accounts for only about three percent of its payroll employment compared with ten percent in Linn County and four percent statewide.

Lincoln County has an economic structure that is very different from either Linn or Benton counties. Lincoln County’s manufacturing sector emphasizes source-based industries like lumber and wood products, paper and fish processing. This has important implications for Lincoln County. Most of the manufacturing employment in the county is in industries that are undergoing long-term structural changes that, in all probability, will severely limit employment opportunities for local residents.

The structure of Lincoln County’s non-manufacturing sector is also quite different from its Region 4 partners. The importance of tourism to the local economy is reflected in the predominance of tourism-related industries. Fully four out of ten jobs in Lincoln County’s trade and service sectors are in the eating/drinking and hotel/motel industries. That compares with fewer than two in ten for Linn and Benton counties.

On the positive side of the ledger for Linn’s economic base is the Linn- Benton Community College in Albany, the shopping conveniences growing along the freeway, and the easy access to jobs in neighboring Salem, Eugene, and Corvallis.

Linn County residents who have looked past this period of resource-based job losses see a strong future for the local economies. The county’s prime location is now paying off as firms look south of Portland and Salem for relocation or expansions

Projections:

Expect total nonfarm employment to reach 112,180 in the year 2008 for the combined areas of Benton, Lincoln, and Linn Counties. This is a growth of 15,900 jobs (16.5 percent) over the ten-year period, although, substantially less than the 41,400 job growth (31percent) between 1988 and 1998.

A clear theme running through these latest projections is a general slowing of employment growth compared with the previous ten years. Every sector of the region’s economy is expected to grow, but grow more slowly than before.

While gains in the number of Region 4 residents are still expected, the large numbers of in-migrants of the past ten years are not expected to continue. Between 1988 and 1998, Region 4’s population grew by 24,300, or 12.3 percent, with much thanks going to a downturn in California’s defense industry and growth in Region 4’s electronic manufacturing.

But the Golden State’s economy has largely worked through those troubles, giving Californian’s fewer reasons to move north. Also, the announcement from the area’s largest manufacturer, Hewlett Packard, that no more expansion is planned for their Corvallis facility, is another major consideration behind the forecast for slower growth.

Lumber and Wood Products Manufacturing

Oregon’s lumber manufacturers discarded older mills, turned to mechanization, and lowered wages to cut losses, heighten efficiency, and increase productivity. The result was a 40 percent reduction in the number of workers required for a given level of production (from 1979 to 1987).

Despite near-record timber harvests from 1986 to 1988 and surging production, employment in lumber and wood products in 1988 still lagged behind 1979 levels.

Reduced supplies and higher prices of raw timber resulted in another round of mill closures throughout the state, starting in 1988 and continuing to the present with no guarantees that further closures won’t happen.

But there are some positive developments in this industry, thanks to the fact that the manufacture of mobile homes is included in the same industry designation as logging and lumber mills. This industry sector includes "establishments engaged in manufacturing finished articles made entirely or mainly of wood or related materials". (The terms "mobile homes" and "manufactured homes" are considered synonymous and are used interchangeably.)

Oregon has become a national leader in manufactured home production: homes built entirely in a factory, then transported to a home site. A number of trends have helped create the boom. Quality keeps improving and the pre-built homes are more affordable to many family budgets and can be ready to move into faster than site-built homes. Also, the region’s above-average population growth has expanded the market.

Two new manufactured homes plants opened in 1995 in Oregon, one of them in Region 4. Palm Harbor Homes opened a Millersburg plant (near Albany) that employs 300 at capacity.

Graph 9 shows significant losses in total lumber products employment between 1989 and 1998, with a brief upturn during 1996 and 1997. But the overall losses were not as great as they would have been if it weren’t for mobile home manufacturing. Since 1989, Region 4’s loss of 2,010 jobs in other lumber and wood (logging, sawmill, and plywood mills) was partially balanced by a 630 employment increase in mobile home manufacturing. However, the three counties in Region 4 have not benefited equally from this trend. The growing mobile home segment is absent in Lincoln County, so total employment losses there have been more extreme than in either Linn or Benton counties.

The loss of 2,010 other lumber products jobs in Region 4 between 1989 and 1998 was relatively severe compared with that experienced by the rest of the state. Between 1989 and 1998, Oregon lost 18,600 jobs (-28 percent) in the industry, excluding mobile homes. Region 4’s loss stood at 32 percent.

A large part of the loss in area and statewide wood products jobs is due to a declining market for plywood. Probably the major reason why the plywood segment is in decline is because home builders are replacing plywood with strand board. Constructed of glue and wood pieces, oriented strand board (OSB) can outperform plywood in certain situations, according to some builders. Cost is another factor. OSB is made from aspen -- a quick-growing, easily- obtained tree harvested in the Southeast and Midwest near OSB plants. The wood is ground into fibers and then glued together. It now costs a builder about $100 per 1,000 square feet more for plywood than for OSB, according March 1999 editions of Random Lengths, a Eugene-based report covering forest products markets.

If there is good news in these job losses, it may be that Region 4 is becoming less dependent on timber-related jobs. While, in 1989, total lumber products (including mobile homes) accounted for 8.3 percent of nonfarm payroll employment, it accounted for a more modest 5.2 percent in 1998.

In addition, many of the remaining local jobs may be more secure. The five-thousand lumber and wood products jobs still remaining in Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties should be safer from the Grim Reaper than in earlier years, as it is mostly the older and less efficient mills that have closed. Those that remain can turn out product at more competitive prices.

Lumber producers in the mid-Willamette Valley do have advantages over those in other parts of the state. These include a location with relative ease of transportation to markets and the availability of labor from the large population base in the Willamette Valley. Many of the permanent lumber facilities’ closures have been in areas less accessible to market and labor availability.

What is the outlook for the local lumber products industry? Our most current projections, 1998-2008, show that the most likely scenario for lumber and wood products is for no net change in jobs during the 10-years up to 2008.

For sure, lumber and wood products projections are a difficult call given the uncertainties surrounding the raw material supply question. Regardless of the supply of raw materials, we would still expect long-term declines in the logging and milling parts of the industry due to mechanization and applied technology. Any gains must include the mobile homes sector as homeowners look to lower-cost alternatives, modular buildings, and other "secondary" products.

Secondary wood products is often defined as the adding of value to the dimensioned lumber, plywood, and the use of what used to be scrap. Such products would include manufactured homes and other buildings, furniture, toys, miscellaneous building products, pallets, and anything else the industry can devise.

Paper Manufacturing

Providing one out of every three manufacturing jobs in Lincoln County and one out of ten such jobs in Linn County, paper products manufacturing is one of the resource based industries that has meant stable employment to local communities.

Especially important in Lincoln County is the Georgia-Pacific facility in Toledo. The plant, which makes paper for cardboard, has been able to withstand a time of less raw material supply during the timber down turn by modernization and the inclusion of recycling as a major part of its processes. These adjustments also helped during the Asian financial crisis when demand for paper products sold to Asia dropped. One problem that the plant may be facing over the next few years is transportation. With rail capacity full and construction on Highway 20 to the east and at the Beverly Beach Bridge on Highway 101 to the north expected to last for the next few years, the plant may have trouble getting pulp and recyclable material to the plant and moving finished product out to buyers.

Expect to see little change in this sector through 2008. Current projections indicate that a loss of 10 jobs in the ten years may be reasonably expected. Pressures for more paper products will occur as the population grows and as markets outside the U.S. improve. Downward pressures will come about as the industry continues to increase efficiencies and as more communication occurs electronically.

What could throw these projections off whether increasing amounts of Asian paper will continue. Asian paper producers are now "saddled with excess capacity" and are "cash poor and willing to sell low", according to an article in the November 18, 1998 issue of the Wall Street Journal. "Producers in Asia have many advantages, from lower-cost raw materials and labor to friendlier regulatory environments. While making a ton of paper in the U.S. costs about $500, it costs half as much in Asian nations before the current crisis. And now, the devaluation of Asian currencies make that paper even cheaper in U.S. dollars." The article continues with a bit of good news: "The volumes that … are selling in the U.S. aren’t yet high enough to do serious, long-term damage to domestic companies."

High Tech (Mostly, But Not Entirely Manufacturing)

Having trouble keeping up with fast-moving developments in high tech in Oregon? You’re not alone. The industry has had its biggest round of capital expansion ever, and Region 4, especially Benton County, has seen significant growth.

The high tech industry in Region 4 is dominated by Hewlett-Packard (HP), but complemented by numerous small firms, many spun-off from HP or drawn to the area by the presence of HP and Oregon State University. The combination of OSU and HP has stimulated a surge of growth in high tech companies in and around Corvallis.

As of the second quarter 1998, Region 4’s high tech industry was made up of 126 firms with a total employment of than 7,450 workers.

The average firm size was 59 workers, but that number can be deceiving. The median size of Region 4’s high tech firms was just four (4 -- no misprint) workers. One large firm (HP, with over 5,000 workers in 1999, according to the local newspaper) brought the average to well above the median.

Sometime in 1993, the Region’s high tech employment surpassed the payroll numbers for lumber and wood products. With the possible exception on 1998, the employment gap is expected to show steady, but slower growth into the next century.

Expected employment levels in machinery & electronic equipment is another especially tough call. Benton County has been the major source of new jobs in this sector as Hewlett Packard added buildings and employees at fantastic rates at their Corvallis facility. This Benton County sector more than doubled its employment in just the four-years between 1992 and 1996. Growth continued until November 1997 when employment reached 7,420, remained level into December, then started falling.

Led by job cutbacks by Hewlett Packard and Nypro, the number of jobs in Benton County’s machinery & electrical equipment manufacturing fell from 7,420 in December 1997 to 5,990 in March 1999. That was a drop of 1,430 jobs in just 15 months.

A projected growth of 830 jobs by 2008, represents the expected gain from the 1998 level, rather than from the more recent lower levels of early 1999. Therefore, expected gains from early 1999 to 2008 are greater than are the projected 1998 to 2008. From the low point (so far) in March 1999, an increase of about 1,600 jobs in Region 4’s machinery & electronic equipment manufacturing industry seems reasonable.

Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Processing

Another industry very important to the Region 4 economies is agriculture. For the last 20 or so years, agriculture has been relegated to the economic back burner, especially whenever growth is considered.

According to the Oregon State Extension Service, Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties combined for almost a third-of-a-billion dollars (that’s billion, with a "b") in total gross farm sales in 1996. Linn County, with sales of $219 million, led all

but three of Oregon’s 36 counties in farm sales. Benton County reported sales of $88 million.

Even though Lincoln County was next to the last in the state for total farm sales, local growers still produced over 10 million in revenue in 1998. Over half of that total was from farm forestry (small wood lots) although nursery and greenhouse crops and livestock also made significant contributions.

Linn County led all others in the production of grass and legume seed, with sales of $121 million accounting for between a third and a half of the state total. Benton and Lincoln both had their highest sales in nursery, greenhouse, and other horticulture.

Western Oregon and the Pacific Northwest, with good soil and cheap electricity, have advantages over much of the rest of the world. Electricity, in regards to agriculture, is for irrigation and processing.

Local growers also have moisture in winter as well as mostly-dry weather at harvest time. The timing of the wet and dry season is important. Half the world has plenty of moisture, but it also gets rain during what should be the harvest time.

California is the nation’s number one farm state. But one big advantage of Oregon and Region 4 is that its farmers and food processors are less constrained by regulation and environmental issues, and especially by the water supply problems that now affect California growers more than ever. As California loses capacity to supply fresh fruit and vegetables, opportunity can open for Willamette Valley food processors to boost production and to increase market share in fresh and processed foods.

Fishing is a very important industry in Lincoln County. While total employment levels are difficult to estimate, the value of fish landings brought into Lincoln County ports is quite significant. The estimated value of commercial fish and shellfish landed at the Port of Newport in 1998 was over $14 million dollars. The top three species, by value landed, were Dungeness crab ($3.5 million), Pacific whiting ($2.1 million), and Chinook Salmon ($1.5 million).

Converting these primary agricultural and fishing goods into higher value added products is also big business in Region 4. About 1,500 to 1,800 workers take home paychecks from the local food processors during peak employment in the summer. In Lincoln County, fish processing accounts for the bulk of food processing employment, while agriculture food processors are the main employers in Linn’s and Benton’s food processing industry.

Food processing employment in most of Region 4 has not changed much during the years. In Benton and Linn counties, this industry has been quite stable. Any change from year to year, however, has been due more to normal

fluctuation in this industry (usually weather-related) than to any underlying economic change. In contrast, Lincoln County’s food processing industry has been pressured by poor ocean conditions and new regulations including groundfish and endangered salmon. This has reduced the size of landings by fisherman, in turn hurting local food processing business.

In the long-term, the outlook for employment in food processing is mixed. There are pressures pushing the number of jobs upward as well as downward. Certainly, the volume of product needed to service the new worldwide markets is increasing. However, increased mechanization will be taking the place of human labor. The rate at which companies incorporate machinery largely depends on the supply of workers during the peak processing times of August through October. Continued shortages of workers able to do the rigorous work involved will hasten the coming of the machines. As a result, the 2008 projections place growth in this industry near the bottom, with no net growth or loss expected.

Construction

If any industry reflects the economy as a whole, it would be construction. When times are good and people are moving to the area, as they were in 1979 and throughout most of the 1990s, construction will boom. People need places to live, places to shop, and places to go to school (both children and adults).

However, construction is considered a highly cyclical industry, which has significant fluctuations in job levels reflecting the movement of the economy. For example, construction was the hardest hit of all major industry groups in the early 1980s. Graph 11 shows that in just three years from 1979 to 1982, the number of building jobs declined to nearly half. But, by 1994, employment records were being broken. Since 1994, Benton, and Linn’s employment levels have continued to set new record employment levels. The construction industry appears to be now near the peak of its rise with 1998’s employment-to-population ratio at 19 jobs per thousand residents; in 1988 there were 9 jobs per thousand residents. This ratio fluctuates over time, rising during economic expansions and falling during the economic retractions.

The fast growth in the number of jobs has led to housing supply shortages, especially in Benton County. A company official was quoted as saying that half of Hewlett-Packard’s employees live outside of Corvallis and 40 percent claim residence in a different county -- mostly Linn. However, recent layoffs, undoubtedly have changed this ratio a bit. Many of these employees commute from Linn County because they can’t find affordable housing in Corvallis.

These accounts of housing shortages, especially in Benton County, are further confirmed in the height of the bars in Graph 12. Benton County, during 1990 and 1998, had less than half as much construction activity as did anybody else on the graph for its level of overall job growth.

Land use planning laws and voter reluctance to approve annexations provide part of the reason for this slowness, which inevitably results in higher home prices. Another reason for a moderate construction employment outlook is for smaller gains in high tech manufacturing. Some of the gains in construction in the early to mid-1990s were due to capital investments in high tech manufacturing facilities. With the high tech sector projected to see a much more modest increase, there will be less need for construction workers.

Current expectations are that Region 4 will continue to need more construction workers than ever, not only for housing, but also to build the

manufacturing plants and other facilities, both announced and yet to be announced. But, the prior rapid run-up of employment is not expected to repeat itself during the next ten years. Instead, a relatively modest gain of 760 jobs, or an increase of 17.7 percent is more likely.

Wholesale/Retail Trade

Trade is another sector that, much like construction, can reflect economic status and population changes. Once the stores are built, it takes people to manage, stock shelves, and run the cash registers.

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, employment in wholesale/retail trade grew more than twice as fast as the Region 4 population. Contributing to trade’s strength were the opening of Heritage Mall in Albany, continued development of the coastal tourism industry, and the advent of new large discount stores in all three counties.

Trade is particularly important to the economy of Lincoln County. A large number of dollars are brought into the county every year by visiting tourists, giving the local trade sector a significant boost above and beyond what the local populace could support. As a result roughly one out of three jobs in Lincoln County are in the trade sector, versus less than one in five jobs for Linn and Benton counties combined.

Yet another 3,830 new wholesale/retail trade jobs are expected in the region by the year 2008 to serve the increased population and larger business community. Also, the number of households headed by persons aged 45 to 54 is expected to increase rapidly throughout the state and local areas. Such households spend 30 percent more than average expenditures of all households, nationally.

Job growth in Region 4’s hospitality and recreation sector (part retail, part services) is expected to exceed population growth thanks to the aforementioned demographic trends. Total employment in eating and drinking places is expected to grow by 1,150 jobs (+17.2 percent). The non-itemized sectors of hotels & lodging places and amusements are expected post similar, if not larger, gains.

Services

If anything is recession-proof, it must be the services industry. Growth in the diverse services sector continued even in 1982, when all other industries showed losses. This sector has more than doubled in employment since 1979, creating more new jobs than any other major category.

Dominating future job growth will be the services sector where the number of jobs is expected to increase by 5,730 (+27.4 percent) compared with a gain of 6,660 (46.2 percent) for the past ten years. Services is not only expected to post the largest numeric gain, but also just a tenth of a point behind the highest percentage increase, other durable goods manufacturing. Total job gains could amount to nearly one out of every three jobs gained in Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties over the projection period.

While business & professional services will probably continue to grow rapidly, we don’t expect to see the kind of growth reported in past years. Current projections are for 2,340 more jobs by the year 2008, a hefty increase of 40.8 percent. Impressive – yes – but nowhere near the 108 percent gain between 1988 and 1998.

Many new jobs in business & professional services are expected to be created in temporary help and employee leasing firms, although it is doubtful that the youthful gains of the past can be matched in the future.

Also, expect continued gains in computer-related services (another component of business services). Long-term growth is expected as the economy continues its shift to automated processes and increasing demand for knowledge-based services.

Health services will see substantial gains (+930 jobs, +16.9 percent), but not at the pace of recent history. Between 1988 and 1998, health services grew by approximately 33 percent (no exact numbers available). A slowdown in population growth and attempts to contain health care costs should reduce the rate of job growth from prior years. However, an aging population will continue an increasing demand for health services.

Substantial job growth exceeding population growth is expected in the remainder of the services industry, called "other services". Other services includes a diversity of activities including hotels and lodging places, auto repair, amusements, private schools, and membership organizations

Government

State universities, local school districts, and community colleges, as well as state, county, and city governments, are all included in the government category. Education has been the fastest-growing sector in government as new residents require school for their children and adult education classes for themselves. Among the students at Linn-Benton Community College and at Oregon Coast Community College are workers laid off from lumber mill closures, as well as certain adult welfare clients.

Government at all levels is under a lot of pressure to trim down. In 1998, total government employment was about 1,250 higher than that for five years earlier, a gain of 6 percent (excluding the workers at Chinook Winds Gaming and Convention Center). During the same time period, the population has grown by nearly twice as much, 11 percent. More difficult to trim during times of population growth is local government. Local government includes services at the local level that are often very labor intensive: police and fire departments, street repair, and schools.

It looks like government job growth will not be keeping up with overall employment growth in the other industries.

Employment at federal agencies is expected to see no change. All around Oregon, growth at postoffices is expected to offset losses at other federal agencies including the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management.

Total state government may grow at a leisurely pace by adding 870 jobs (+9.5 percent), slower than the statewide expected 12 percent. Statewide will grow faster than Region 4 as prison facilities are built outside of the mid-Willamette Valley.

The number of local government jobs is also expected to grow slightly more slowly than the rest of the economy (15.1 percent v.s.16.5 percent). Local public schools will see some gains with the population increases, but at a slower rate with the marginal increase in the size of the school-age population (ages 5-17). City and county governments are expected to grow at a slower pace than most industries.

OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT

Career counselors used to have it easy. They gave aptitude tests to high school students, matched the results with lists of established careers, and sent their clients out into the world with the equivalent of "have a happy life!"

But in the rush through the 1970s and 1980s, career stability quietly slipped out the back door. The baby boom generation poured into the job market, increasing competition for jobs. And the skills needed for many occupations were changing. Technology and industrial restructuring made many traditional manufacturing jobs obsolete or sent them overseas.

In the meantime, changing technology and industrial restructuring made many traditional manufacturing jobs obsolete or sent them overseas.

Today’s growth in services and trades conjures up an image of a workforce dominated by low-paid sales clerks, waitresses, and janitors. While growth in trade and services does generate lower-wage jobs, these industries also provide jobs for higher-paid nurses, managers, programmer, and other professional and technical workers.

1998-2008 Projections

According to the Employment Department's recently released (August 1999) occupational employment projections, Region 4's economy will add more than 16,000 jobs over the decade. This is a 16.3 percent increase over 1998 levels.

This growth will touch all major occupational groups, with growth in excess of 20 percent in sales, service, and professional/technical occupations (Graph 14).

Relatively slow growth of 10 percent is expected in clerical and administrative support occupations and the aggregate agriculture, forestry and fishing group. Slightly below average growth is expected in managers and administrators, and production and construction occupations.

Of equal importance to rates of growth is the sheer size of the increase. A following graph also shows the number of jobs that each major occupational group is expected to add over the next ten years.

Sales occupations, with the fastest percentage growth, is in fourth place for numerical growth. The combination of production, construction, operators, maintenance, and laborers, growing slower than the average for all occupations, is in second place in total numerical growth.

Even occupations with little or no employment growth may still offer many job openings due to replacement needs. When employment in an occupation remains the same or increases, replacement needs equal the number of people

leaving that occupation. Individuals who leave an occupation for a variety of reasons must be replaced. Some become employed in a different occupation as a result of a promotion, a career change, the loss of an existing job, the need for a different job while in school or caring for a family member, or some other reason. Others who leave an occupation stop working altogether because they retire, desire more leisure time, return to school, move out of the area, become ill, or for some other reason. Even if employment in an occupation is expected to remain the same, those individuals who left the occupation must be replaced.

Occupations with the most replacement openings generally are large, with low pay and status, low training requirements, and a high proportion of young and part-time workers. While these drawbacks cause workers to leave the job, these positions provide many people with entry-level job opportunities.

Occupations with few replacement openings are often those with high pay and status, lengthy training requirements, and a high proportion of middle-to-older working age, full-time workers. Workers in these occupations generally have spent several years in education or training that often is not highly applicable to other occupations.

When annual job openings due to replacement are added to job openings due to growth, a different picture can emerge, as shown in a following graph. While professional and technical had the most job openings due to growth, the combination of replacements and growth put the production and related occupations with the highest total number of job opportunities for the year.

Managers and Administrators

This occupational group includes top and middle managers, administrators and executives. Their primary duties include policymaking, planning, staffing, directing, and controlling the activities of the establishments they oversee.

Manager and administrator occupations are expected to grow by over 700 jobs over the ten-year period from 1998 to 2008. The growth rate for this group (14.1%) is slightly below that for all occupations (16.3%).

Since these occupations exist across all industries in the economy, this occupational group as a whole is somewhat immune from downturns in specific industries.

Adding the most managerial jobs will be the service producing industries, like real estate, business services, wholesale trade, and social services. Even industries commonly associated with low-pay, such as eating and drinking establishments, will need managers as current establishments grow and as new facilities are build.

Shown in last place on Graph 16 is the general manager/top executive occupations which, except for property & estate managers, is the largest managerial occupation. Even though in last place on the table, remember this is a table of fastest-growing occupations -- so even last place is expected to perform well. General managers exist in all types of organizations, from small family-run operations to large multinational corporations. While net growth in this occupation is expected to exceed 120 by the year 2008, its growth rate (7.7%) is far surpassed by smaller, more industry-specific managerial occupations like engineering/math/ science managers (25.7%), and property and real estate managers (29.2). Retirements and job stress will help account for the about 24 job openings due to replacement during 1999. Combining job openings due to growth with openings due to replacements places this occupation at the head of the list.

Professional and Technical Occupations

The professional and technical occupational group will add more jobs than any other major occupational group. More than 4,200 new jobs are expected to be added between 1998 and 2008. Most of these jobs require at least some type of post-secondary education or training, many at the bachelor’s degree or higher level.

Thanks to continued growth in the technology industries, many of the fastest-growing professional and technical occupations are high technology occupations. Even so, Growth of the Region 3’s electronics manufacturing industry will not see the same level of increases as the prior ten years, nor keep up with growth statewide. Hewlett Packard, the major player in this industry has announced that there will be no further expansion after it fills its current facility.

A nearby graph identifies the fastest percentage growth as other computer scientist (sometimes referred to as "miscellaneous and emerging computer scientist"). Several occupations identified as emerging and/or multi-disciplined (often identified as "other") represent the need for workers for jobs yet to be designed and for those whose expertise cross two or more disciplines.

Three education-related occupations are tops on the accompanying graph for the total number of job openings expected in 1999. Teaching-related occupations have a relatively slower growth rate and are not included with the fastest-growing professional and technical occupations. However, as a group, this larger, but slower-growing, occupation sector is expected to create more than one out of four of the new professional and technical jobs. Three education-related entries are expected to provide some of the largest numbers of total openings this year.

Sales Related Occupations

Sales related occupations make up nearly one out of ten jobs in Region 4.

Sales workers exist in nearly every industry and range from lower-paid entry-level stock clerks to highly-paid stock brokers to sales engineers with graduate degrees.

Four out of five sales workers, over 7,500 in Benton, Lincoln, and Linn counties, are directly involved in the sale of merchandise, with retail

salespersons, cashiers, and stock clerks being the largest sales related occupations. Another nearly 700 workers are in sales/service occupations, such

as real estate agents, insurance agents, and travel agents. About one out of eight sales-related workers are first-line supervisors.

The number of sales related jobs will increase by 22.4 percent over the next ten years, translating to about 2,135 new jobs. This rate is faster than the projected rate for the region as a whole – 16.3 percent -- and is due in large part to the growth expected in the retail sales industry. Sales/service occupations will grow at only a slightly slower rate (+12.8%). Some of the fastest-growing sales occupations will be travel agents, sales agent – financial services, and sales representative – technical products, all with expected growth rates of over 30 percent.

With employment near 3,350 in 1998, retail salesperson remains Region 4’s largest occupation, about 550 ahead of second-place general office clerk. Growth in the retail trade sector will provide more new retail salesperson jobs in the coming decade than any other occupation (+783). However, many of the new sales related positions will provide only part-time employment. On the positive side, the high rates of turnover prevalent in part-time employment also create many openings. As such, replacement and growth will generate nearly 500 openings a year in sales-related occupations.

Clerical and Administrative Support Occupations

The clerical and administrative support occupational group is expected to tie with agriculture, forestry and fishing for the area’s lowest growth rate (10.0%) of all the major occupational groups over the ten-year period 1998-2008. Rapid changes in technology will continue to impact many occupations in this group, both in terms of the level of employment as well as the scope of functions performed in a given occupation.

Typical clerical functions like typing memos and tallying columns of numbers have been absorbed into the routine job duties of many managers and professionals through the use of computer software. Changes like these are expected to have significant impacts on employment levels for such clerical occupations as billing and calculating machine operators and typists.

All the news, however, is not bad for this occupational group. In spite of recent rapid technological changes, the need for large numbers of clerical and administrative support workers still exists. The services of bookkeeping and accounting clerks, stock clerks, and other clerical occupations will remain invaluable to the operation of most companies.

Clerical generalist positions, like general office clerks and secretaries, are expected to offer the best opportunities for employment in this field over the next ten years. The occupation of general office clerk is the second-largest in Region 4 and will create 375 new jobs between 1998 and 2008. Adding replacement openings and growth, General office clerks will create job opportunities 87 times during the year.

Service Occupations

Service occupations will be the second fastest percentage-growth occupational category in Region 4 over the next decade -- with the third-highest number of new jobs. While services occupations represent 15.6 percent of all jobs, they are expected to account for 20.3 percent of the growth by 2008.

This category encompasses a wide range of occupations related to food and beverages, building and cleaning services, health services, protective services, and various personal services. Occupations related to the food and beverage industry, such as food servers, cooks, and food preparation workers, account for over one-half of the service positions right now and will provide the most new service jobs in the coming decade -- more than 1,300. Food and beverage-related occupations include three of the ten fastest-growing jobs on the accompanying graph.

All major groups of service occupations will grow near to or faster than the average Region 4 rate of 16.3 percent. It is the personal service and health service occupations that will exhibit exceptionally rapid increases over the next ten years: 40.7 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively.

Several demographic and social trends are contributing to the rapid growth of the service sector. For instance, the growing incidence of dual-income and single- parent families increases demand for outside services such as food preparation and child care, either because of higher income or lack of time. Private protective service occupations may experience a boom in employment due to social trends and increasing demand for commercial and residential security. Finally, the demand for health and social service occupations will increase as the "baby boom" generation ages, and because of the continued appeal of this part of Oregon as a retirement destination.

It can be expected that many entry-level positions, especially among the food and beverage occupations, will provide a significant number job opportunities. These positions, which often require only minimal education and/or experience, are among the lower paid positions in Oregon. And sure enough, the first four of the ten occupations on the total job openings graph are from the food services industry. The number of openings in a year provided by waiter/waitresses and the combined food service worker are among the highest of any occupations.

Two similar, but distinctive, occupations expected to be the fastest-growing occupations the projection period ending in 2008: personal and home care aides (+68.7%), and home health aides (+48.2%).

Personal and home care aides perform a variety of tasks at places of residence. Duties may include keeping house and advising families having problems with

such things as nutrition, cleanliness, and household utilities. This occupation is expected to increase employment from just over 300 in 1998 to over 500 by 2008, an increase of 68.7 percent

Home health aides perform health-related duties in the homes of patients including changing beds, administering medications, grooming, and preparing meals under doctor’s orders or direction of a nurse. Increasing numbers of elderly, combined with the desires of many patients to remain in their home, is behind the expected increase of home health aides.

Child care worker also shows up on both graphs. With a ten-year increase expected to be 42.3 percent, about 37 jobs for child care workers are expected to become available this year due to growth and replacement.

Given the large size and projected rapid growth of this sector, service occupations, like sales-related occupations, will offer excellent opportunities in the coming decade for people with a wide range of educational and work experience backgrounds.

Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing Workers

As a group, occupations reported in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing group are forecasted to grow more slowly between 1998 and 2008 than the average for all occupations. The number of timber cutter and logging-related jobs is expected to remain steady, though there still will be about 20 jobs a year available replace workers who leave the industry or the workforce. No change is being forecast in the fishing industry, where the need for fishing vessel deckhands may remain steady at 215 workers.

There are still several occupations in this generally depressed section that are expected to outperform the average for all occupations. The largest of these is gardeners and groundskeepers, where a net growth of 126 jobs (+25.1%) is this section’s largest numerical increase. Adding growth and replacement openings, about 28 job opportunities per year are expected.

The largest percentage growth in occupations with projected employment levels of 50 or more is found with farmworker, farm & ranch animals, followed closely by animal caretaker and veterinary assistant. Combined, these three animal-related occupations is expected to provide about 74 new jobs by 2008. But the limited size limits the annual growth plus replacement openings to only 12.

This sector’s second-largest numerical increase, although with a very small percentage increase in the need for workers is with farm workers -- food and fiber crops. The need for 383 workers in 1998 is expected to inch upward to 424 by 2008, an increase of 41 (+10.7%). Annual replacement needs of 11 far surpass the expected growth of four jobs. The agricultural industry is beset by counter trends: mechanization and the switch to less labor-intensive crops, versus the emergence of the market for winery grapes and the continued strong markets for berries and other specialty products more insulated from the efficiencies of high-production technologies.

Production, Construction, Operating, Maintenance, and Laborer Occupations

This diverse group of occupations, with 26,400 workers in 1998, represents the largest major occupational group.. These occupations are projected to grow by over 3,250 jobs by 2008, a rate of 12.3 percent, less than the 16.3 percent average for all occupations.

The occupations with the highest percentage increases are a diverse group of sheet metal workers, drivers, mechanics, and other related occupations with expected growth among the larger occupations reaching 31.1 percent for sheet metal worker.

Combining growth with replacement openings, two of the occupations providing the largest numbers of jobs are for the two kinds of truck drivers, heavy and light. Continued population increases coupled with further growth in the Region’s wholesale, retail and manufacturing sectors will increase the need for transportation services.

Heavy truck drivers, including tractor-trailer and other trucks with a capacity of at least three tons, are expected to increase by 19.0 percent during the ten-year

projection period. Growth and replacement openings should total 56 during 1999.

Light delivery trucks include trucks, vans, or automobiles with a capacity under three tons and are used to deliver or pick up merchandise. The number of light delivery truck drivers should increase by 29.0 percent by 2008 with growth and replacement openings adding 34 job opportunities in 1999.

A large number of replacement openings (35) for semiconductor processors added to an expected annual growth of 15 jobs means that 50 employment opportunities per year are expected. Semiconductor processors are responsible for the manufacture and testing of microchips for use in computers and other electronic products.

An occupation that may have a surprisingly high growth is laundry/dry-cleaning machine operator (61 new jobs; +49.2%). Although many new fabrics no longer need the gentle care of a dry-cleaning operation, the growth of tourists and residential care lodging means more bedding and other cleaning to be done apart from normal household needs.

Temporary Employment: A Growing Trend

Although not an occupation by itself, temporary work has become one of the strongest trends in the workplace. Temporary workers do not hold permanent positions with one company, except perhaps for the temporary employment

agency. But the temporary worker may work full-time, at different locations, perhaps even in different occupations.

Temporary workers are used in most industries. Some temporary agencies specialize in supplying particular industries, such as manufacturing, high technology, utilities, or services.

The growing trend toward temporary workers brings stark contrast to the working relationships fostered by permanent employees. Temporary workers have a greater sense of freedom and flexibility. Identity is based on occupation, not by company. But employers may not invest in training temporary workers because they may not be around to provide a return on that investment.

Because of these changing attitudes and relationships between employees and employers, workers have an increasing responsibility for their own career planning and management.

Worker Shortages

What started as shortages of workers during the busy summer and fall months have turned into a full-time, year-around trend; concerns regarding recruiting and retaining skilled workers are not a recent phenomena. More and more employers are reporting a shortage of qualified workers for many of their job openings. Such reports have been coming in since the early 1990s around the mid-Willamette Valley.

A large part of the blame for these shortages might be traced to the increased skill levels which more and more jobs are requiring these days.

Looking back to the earliest stages of the transition from an industry-based economy to one of a knowledge-base, studies have linked the industry shifts to skill shifts. There has been a move away from jobs relying on motor skills to those requiring more cognitive and interactive people skills. At the same time, the educational requirements of jobs were increasing. Today, even many entry-level jobs are often no longer identified as "no skill" or even "low skill" jobs. Today's employees must meet the challenge of the new technology and customer service demands.

Worker shortages are being reported in every industry. Even in the declining lumber products industry, there are shortages of skilled workers quite possibly because former mill workers responded to industry downsizing by changing professions. At the lower end of the wage scale, there are reported shortages of office workers, clerical help, as well as food service workers as those with job skills can find higher paying jobs.

It is even more difficult to find workers with specialized skills, licenses or certifications. Within Region 3, there is a critical shortage of those in the medical related occupations. Also, employers say that workers in the trades or crafts are very difficult to find. Examples include carpenters (including those working in residential construction as well as those having more specialized skills needed for large construction projects, i.e. framing carpenters for bridge construction), and others on the accompanying list.

Given the overall shortage of workers across the broad spectrum of occupations, why are there still people out of work? In Benton, Lincoln and Linn counties alone, there can be more than 5,000 workers without jobs at any time during the year. It is not solely a question of numbers but also a matter of qualifications and suitability. Because the days of "no skill" entry-level jobs are becoming a thing of the past, today's workers are expected to at least have basic reading, math, computer, and interpersonal communication skills in addition to job-specific requirements. Even businesses offering low wage jobs expect new employees to have attributes associated with work ethics -- regular attendance, reliability, willingness to work, maintaining appropriate attire, and perhaps even more important, attitude.

Education and Training Requirements

Benton, Lincoln, and Linn’s economies provide a great many jobs requiring both low and high levels of education. The accompanying graph shows the various educational requirements of the jobs which existed in Region 4’s economy in 1998.

Conceptually, the minimum education and training requirements represents the education level that an individual must achieve in order to qualify, in the most minimal sense, for a particularly occupation. Without this education level, the applicant would probably not even get an interview. In some cases, such as short- term, on-the-job training, it is implied that the individual would get the

training after being hired for the job, but without successfully completing the training, they would not remain employed.

Short-term, on-the-job training (OJT) jobs – where job skills can typically be learned in less than one month – accounts for nearly four out of every ten jobs in

Region 4. Most of these jobs are found in retail sales and services. They include such jobs as retail salesperson, cashiers, and waiter/waitresses.

Moderate-term OJT jobs account for a further 12 percent, more than one out of every ten jobs. These represent occupations where the jobs skills can be learned in less than one year. The largest occupations in this group include general office clerks, bookkeeping and accounting clerks, and secretaries. Other moderate-term training occupations include sales representatives and institutional cooks.

Together, five out of every ten jobs in Region 3’s economy require short-term, or moderate-term, on-the-job training. Or put another way, half of the jobs require no more than up to one year on the job, learning through formal and informal training at the job site.

On the other end of the spectrum, nearly one in four of the Region 4’s jobs require a Bachelor’s degree or more. Most of these occupations are teachers, engineers, registered nurses, and accountants.

Tomorrow’s Jobs – High and Low Wages

One real issue of interest is whether or not local new jobs will provide a good balance between high and low wages, or whether they will be skewed in one direction or another. The accompanying graph shows that slightly over one-half of Region 4’s projected new jobs (1998-2008) will come in occupations which had an average wage of less than $25,000 in 1997. The darker, upper bar represents these new jobs.

Interestingly, about one-fourth of the new jobs will be in occupations where the average wage in 1997 was more than $35,000. And the smallest number of new jobs will come in middle-income occupations, paying wages between $25,000 and $35,000.

Furthermore, by comparing the 1998 employment levels with the 2008 projected levels, we see that the distribution among wage levels is expected to shift slightly to lower-paying jobs. In other words, the supply of high versus middle versus low wage jobs is expected move towards the low wage jobs in the coming years. By 2008, the average worker in Benton, Lincoln, and Linn will be slightly more likely to be working in a medium, or low-wage job as today.

Top 10 Job Skills Needed for Region 4 Occupations

No longer is a strong back all a person needs to get a good job. Not even a college degree is enough if the person doesn’t posses certain skills that may not be part of the academic book-learning.

The Oregon Employment Department has identified skills that are needed to meet employer demands in Region 4. The accompanying table lists the twelve most-needed skills workers need to meet most employer’s minimum qualifications.

Three skills in the top twelve are directly related to the use of computers. In the all jobs column, they highly the ranked numbers 1,3, and 8. When categorized by wage levels, it will be important for even people seeking low-wage jobs to use the computer as well as a computer keyboard.

It is getting more difficult to find an occupation that does not use computer skills, whether that occupation is in an office, at a check-out stand, warehouse, or on the road as a truck driver or delivery person. Computers, or at least, linkages to computers are becoming commonplace at the work site. About the only kind of job still relatively free of computer use might be the "strong-back" or "muscle" jobs where rigorous physical stamina is the primary skill requirement.

Four other skills in the top dozen have to do with personal interaction with other people. These "people" skills are ranked number 4, 5, 6 and 12 in the all jobs column. Interestingly, these skills are as high or even higher ranked in the "low wage" column as in the medium and high-wage jobs. In addition, skill number 7, use correct grammar, punctuation, and spelling could be considered belonging to this group.

Undoubtedly, these five "people-related" skills reflect the many lower-paid jobs in retail trade and services that deal directly with customers and often with several layers of supervisors and managers. As retail trade and services continue to be major factors in the growing number of jobs, these skills will continue to be high on the list of necessary job qualifications.

It is interesting to note that four of the skills, those ranked seven, eight, ten and twelve, in the all jobs column, have a definite progression among the wage columns.

While, using correct grammar, punctuation, and spelling is important in all wage categories, it is most important in the high wage jobs, slightly less so in the medium wage jobs, and less important in the low wage jobs. Many of the higher-wage occupational fields including accounting, engineering, medicine, construction, and many others, demand the use of precise terminology and correct grammar because of the harsh consequences of misunderstandings and incorrect communication.

"Use word processing software" is also higher on the "high-wage" list and less so as the wages decrease. Even if lower-paid workers do not have need of a computer, chances are that their supervisor uses word processing software for performance reviews and general correspondence.

Higher paid accountants, economists, and engineers are more likely to use spreadsheet software than are people in occupations requiring lessor training and education.

One occupation used less by workers in the high-paid jobs, and more as the wages decrease is "receive payments and make change." Ranked number 92 on the high-wage jobs list and 46 on the medium column, evidently few high and medium-paid jobs need this skill. Undoubtedly, the skill to receive payments and make change is high on the low-wage requirements because of the many low wage jobs in retail sales.

INCOME AND WAGES

Various methods have been devised to measure the relative prosperity of one area against another or of an area over time. Employment growth and decline and unemployment rates are some of the measures, while others discussed in this chapter, are targeted to the income and earnings of residents.

Median Family Income

Median Family Income (MFI) is a frequently-used indicator of well-being. A "family" is defined as "a householder and one or more other persons living in the same household who are related by birth, marriage, or adoption."

Conceptually, MFI is found by lining up every family by order of income and then identifying the family exactly in the middle. Half the families would have a higher income and half lower than the family chosen. This is a good measure, because it minimizes the effects of a few very wealthy or very poor families.

Economic, as well as personal and social factors, affect a locality’s median family income levels. Certainly, the availability of high paying jobs should increase an area’s median family income.

Perhaps just as significant, a particular family’s income will be

greatly affected by the number of workers in that family. Statewide, the average income for families with no workers was $21,723; one worker, $32,038; two workers, $44,768; and, with three or more workers, $56,451. The number of workers a family has could be the result of the availability of work or it may be the voluntary personal choice of family life style.

As has been documented many times, 1990 Census data support the fact that single family households, where the head of the household is a female with children, have a greater than average chance of having income below the poverty level.

In Benton County, average family income for families with a female householder with children, no husband present, was $16,739, about one-third the level for married-couple families ($47,877). The picture is similar in Lincoln and Linn, with income levels of $13,689 versus $39,648 and $12,453 versus $37,436 respectively.

Total Personal Income

Personal income is one of the more important sources of information regarding the economic prosperity of state or county residents. This key economic indicator, when used with other statistics such as population and employment, is often an integral part of a data package used for economic forecasts, market analysis, and government program allocations.

An area’s personal income is defined as the income received by, or on behalf of, its residents, excluding those who are temporarily working abroad. It includes income received by individuals from all sources: wages and salaries of employees, net income of proprietors, dividends, net interest, rent, and government transfer payments such as social security.

An accompanying table shows that Benton County has more than half again the statewide percentage of income from government and a slightly higher proportion of personal income coming from dividends, interest, and rent. The rent portion is higher in Benton County because of the large number of OSU student renters.

Lincoln County shows its strength in transfer payments to retirees and in tourism-related industries like retail trade. According to estimates on travel-related expenditures by the Oregon Economic Development Department and personal income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, transfer payments and tourism-generated dollars amounted to over 77 percent of Lincoln County’s total personal income in 1997! That compares with only 23 percent for all of

Oregon. Lincoln’s major weakness is the manufacturing sector -- income from this sector accounts for less than half the statewide percentage.

In Linn County, higher than average jobless rates are reflected in a still higher-than-statewide proportion of personal income originating from government transfer payments such as unemployment insurance and welfare benefits.

Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI)

Yet another perspective on an area’s economic well-being is afforded by looking at its "income per resident". Per capita personal income is total personal income divided by the total population.

Records show that Oregon’s per capita personal income was near, and sometimes above, the national average prior to 1980. But the recession of the early 1980s hit Oregon extra hard, causing the state’s per capita personal income to fall to just above 90 percent of the nation’s.

In recent years, Oregon’s per capita personal income growth has been encouraging. But, Oregon’s 1997 PCPI of $24,393 is the lowest on the west coast. (Washington has the highest PCPI, at $27,961.) While the income gap has been closing in recent years, Oregonians, on the average, still earn about five percent ($1,368) less than the national average (Graph 20 and Table 12).

All Region 4 counties have had consistently lower per capita personal income than the state average. Mid-valley and coastal counties are always eclipsed by the Portland PMSA and often by counties with large agricultural resources. Morrow County, for example, with its large farms and small population, is constantly ranked in the top ten counties in per capita personal income.

Benton County’s PCPI during the 1970s was among the lowest in the state, pulled down by university students with little or no personal income. In the early 1980s, the high tech boom and low unemployment pushed Benton’s PCPI upward while other counties hit harder by the recession lost income in relation to the state and U.S.

Until the 1980s, Lincoln County’s PCPI had been mostly in the upper one-third of Oregon counties. Retirees and tourists were given credit for Lincoln’s relatively high per capita personal income. Not only did government transfer payments provide much of the elderly’s income; but, since these people rarely had children at home, their income, on a per person basis, was quite high when compared with a younger family with children.

Over the recent past, per capita personal income and average wages in Lincoln County have not kept pace with Oregon or the United States. A large drop in employment and earnings from the resource-related sectors of the county in the early 1980s has limited gains in income generated from industry earnings. Total real earnings from resource-related (nonfarm) industries dropped by nearly $60 million, or by two-thirds, in the short period between 1979 and 1982, and has not significantly recovered since then. In real terms, there has been only very slight growth in the county’s per capita personal income level, increasing from roughly $19,000 to $20,000 (in 1997 dollars) since 1986.

A rapid increase in transfer payments and investment income helped to staunch the loss of income. In fact, the average Lincoln County resident earned over $1,500 more from government transfer sources and investment income in 1997, than did the average Oregon resident.

Linn County, prior to the early 1990s, performed near the bottom of the PCPI standings. Linn had three strikes against it: 1. some of the state’s higher ratios of unemployment, 2. a lower female labor force participation rate, and 3. a slightly larger proportion of (mostly non-working) young people, age 0-19, and older people, age 65+, than the rest of the state.

What has changed is that by 1997, Linn County jobless rates was among the lowest of the non-metropolitan areas. In 1997, Linn’s unemployment rate averaged 7.3 percent for the year, lower than all but seven of Oregon’s 27 non-MSA areas.

In response to lowering unemployment rates, Linn’s per capita personal income ranking among Oregon counties improved from 33 out of 36, in 1980, to 15th position by 1997 (Table 11).

Covered Employment and Payrolls

"Covered Employment" refers to those employees covered by Employment Department unemployment insurance (UI) law. If these workers lose their jobs through no fault of their own, they may be eligible for monetary benefits and are thus considered "covered" by unemployment insurance.

Data supplied by employers contain payroll levels by industry for all Oregon counties. Keep in mind that every industry includes numerous occupations with different pay levels. For example, manufacturing firms employ not just production line workers, but also clerks, managers, janitors, truck drivers and many others, all with differing wage levels. Also included in the mix are part-time and seasonal workers as well as full-time, year-round employees.

The industries reporting the lowest average payroll also have high incidences of part-time or seasonal workers. Retail trade, agriculture, and services, together at the bottom of the average payroll scale, have many workers who work reduced numbers of hours.

Compared with the statewide numbers, average payrolls in Region 4 were mixed. Some industries in some counties were way below or above the other Region 4 counties or statewide.

Benton County yielded the largest average payroll in the region ($32,042), nearly $2,500 above the statewide average of $29,548. When compared with Lincoln and Linn counties and with the Oregon averages, Benton’s average payroll was especially strong in manufacturing and services, and, to a lesser degree, in state and federal government.

Annual paychecks were nearly $12,000 higher than for the state in Benton’s manufacturing sector, largely due to the county’s "high tech" electrical equipment manufacturing industry sector. It’s not so much that this high tech industry pays more in Benton County than the state, but more that it makes up

two out of three jobs of Benton’s manufacturing employment base compared with less than one out of seven statewide.

Jobs in Benton’s services sector averaged more than $1,200 in annual wages more than statewide. Also included here are companies involved in software and research and development, which contribute high-paying jobs to Benton’s economy.

Benton’s government sector has many higher-than-average paying state government jobs, thanks to Oregon State University in Corvallis.

Lincoln County’s relatively-low average payroll of just $21,963 is, in large part, due to the large relative size of its retail trade and services (tourism-related) sectors. Almost one-half of Lincoln’s employment is in the retail trade and service industries, which average just $14,484 and $17,366 per year, respectively. Many of the jobs in these industries, especially in tourist areas such as Lincoln County, have low average annual wages because the jobs are seasonal.

Relatively-low average payrolls in Lincoln’s finance, insurance, and real estate sector, as well as in federal government, have a commonality in that many of the higher-paid professional and managerial positions are found in the metropolitan corporate or regional offices.

One area of payrolls where Lincoln shines far above the state and other Region 4 counties is in the combined agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries. While, statewide, the entire sector averaged $18,073 per worker in 1998, workers in Lincoln County averaged $29,373 thanks to the fishing industry (statewide, SIC 09, fishing, hunting, and trapping averaged $28,244).

Linn County fell short of matching the statewide annual average payroll by nearly 2,200. In only ag, forestry, fishing and mining could Linn post greater average payrolls than the state. Even where much of Linn’s strength lies, manufacturing, payrolls were closer matched with Linn down about $1,200 from the statewide figure. Linn County has some advantage in the relatively high wages paid in the paper products and precious metals industries. Paper products employment makes up about one out of twelve Linn County manufacturing jobs and in 1997 posted an average payroll of $56,258, more than $18,000 above the average for all manufacturing in the county. More good news is that the primary metals industry, which averaged $51,293739 per worker in 1997 and accounts for about one out of five manufacturing workers in Linn County.

1990 Census High Poverty Areas

Families and persons not in families were classified as being below or above the poverty level based on income and family size in 1989. The average poverty threshold for a family of four was $12,674 in 1989; weighted average thresholds by size of family were:

1 person $6,310

2 persons 8,076

3 persons 9,885

4 persons 12,674

5 persons 14,990

6 persons 16,921

Over 14 percent of Region 4 residents were living below the poverty level, according to information supplied on their 1990 Census questionnaires. Linn County had Region 4’s lowest incidence of persons below poverty level (13.5%), followed by Lincoln County (14.4%), and Benton County (15.5%).

Further geographic detail on the accompanying table shows that Benton County had at least one census tract with over 40 percent of its residents in poverty. Several other tracts in Corvallis, heavily populated by students at Oregon State University, reported a high incidence of poverty. In character for an area of students is high poverty (parental support doesn’t appear on census results), few younger and older residents, fewer high school dropouts, and, especially, a lot of people living in group quarters. Interestingly, compared with the region as a whole, this student-saturated locality had a very low incidence of males or females not working some time during the year.

In Linn County, about one-fourth of the residents in Census Tract (CT) 204 reported incomes below the poverty level. CT 204 is a 10-block wide area south of the Willamette River between the bridges and Millersburg. Small and older homes, many rented dwellings, dominate this area. Most personal characteristics are very similar to the entire Region 4. But one clue as to the reason for high poverty rates is the high school dropout rate in excess of 28 percent, nearly ten points higher than the region’s average.

Census Tract 308 in eastern Linn County contains north Lebanon and rural areas about halfway to Albany. The eastern part of the county has been the

hardest hit by lumber products layoffs in recent years. Over 28 percent of this area’s residents are high school dropouts. It used to be that a young person could drop out of high school and get a good paying job at the lumber mill nearby. Home ownership in the area is high, which would indicate that the deterioration in the well-being of local families has been a fairly recent occurrence.

In Lincoln County, Lincoln City and Siletz reported high poverty rates, but for different reasons. The mild temperatures and wild oceans of Lincoln City have lured many retirees to the area. Over one-quarter of its residents are age 65 and over. The high number of older residents contributed to the large number of males and females not working at all during the year. Many of those that did work would have had lower paying and seasonal jobs in the area’s tourist trade and services sectors.

The city of Siletz, named for the area’s active Indian tribe and located in the interior of Lincoln County, has different characteristics and reasons for its high poverty rates. With over one-fourth of its residents 0-14 years of age, many young and/or large families may not have the earning power to stay ahead of the poverty tables. To this, add the fact that nearly one-fourth of the residents are high school dropouts, and it becomes more understandable why this area has 19.9 percent of its men, women, and children living below the poverty line.

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